3 Things that Mattered - 2022
This blog is this year’s version of ‘3 things that mattered.’ For posterity and if you’d like to laugh at what I was wrong about, catch the blog from last year…
A quote to live your life by:
“Anyone who isn't embarrassed of who they were last year probably isn't learning enough.” - Alain de Botton
So with that in mind, let’s go..
3 Things I’ve learnt
1) There is nothing more powerful than doing the work
When I look back over the periods where I’ve made real progress this year. It wasn’t when I’d found a ‘secret’ productivity hack. The way I was going to systemise myself to new goals. It’s been when the hours and the grind were put in.
Yes, working smart is far better than working hard. But, at the end of the day, there is a direct relationship between inputs and outputs. Often when I’m honest with myself in trying to find new ways of working. I’m deluding myself that if I only try this new thing, it will make the work easier. When conversely the only way is through.
Reading the books ‘Ego is the Enemy’ and ’The Obstacle is the Way’ from Ryan Holiday helped refine my thinking on this:
“The best plan is only good intentions unless it degenerates into work.” - Peter Drucker
I love reading, listening to podcasts or watching YouTube videos on how to learn things, in finance, economic changes, video editing techniques, the list goes on. It feels good to find a new way of working. Something that will broaden your horizons or make you more efficient.
That said. Let’s not forget for more meaningful work progress will be difficult. It will take a long time, it will require late nights.
Whatever you are planning to achieve this year. It’s best to have a healthy level of perspective at the outset.
If whatever you were aiming to achieve was easy, everyone would do it.
That’s the point.
2) You must curate what you consume
Since 2020 it feels like the news cycle has been endlessly bleak. I feel part may be due to the attention arms race that is going on in the media. Gone are the days where nuance and the long read were modes of communication. Let’s face it, now it’s all about the quick click, the battle for your attention.
The problem is, when we as individuals are constantly plugged into the newsfeed, whether that be via apps, TV, twitter etc. It starts to blend into your psyche. Like the slot addicts at Vegas (yes the connection is closer than you think!)
One audiobook I’m enjoying is ’Stolen Focus’ by Johann Hari. It’s about how technology and smartphones have influenced our brains and concentration. A cited study was when measured the amount of data that enters the brain is as much as 74 GB a day, which is as much as 16 movies.
Through TV, computers, billboards, general media and of course, our ubiquitous smartphones.
Each year the data consumed is around 5% more than the previous year.
Right now there are millions of algorithms all vying for your attention. Programmed by multi-billion pound tech giants, staffed by the very best in behavioural psychology.
The human brain is hardwired to react. All modern media competes in the same arena which is effectively:
URGENCY + JEOPARDY + FRAMING = ATTENTION
This is what I’ve taken so far from the book:
- The human brain is not a machine. It simply is not wired to take in the level of information we are throwing at it.
- Multi-tasking is the easiest way to be unproductive.
- Flow state is one of the key ways to achieve happiness (I can vouch for this from my more creative days) but it is easily disrupted and broken.
- Chronic tiredness is epidemic and leads to bad concentration.
- Going for a walk? You don’t always need to be plugged in. - Do not mistake ‘daydreaming’ for being unproductive. There is research out showing this is a key time you brain absorbs information you’ve been consuming. If you throw more information at yourself you’re missing opportunities for your brain to make connections.
Counterintuitively, stepping back from the deluge of information could be one of the best ways to absorb more.
…perhaps one to reflect on for 3 things that mattered 2023
3) Things can move quicker than anyone expects
If there was an area where I look back on for the last year and say I felt flat-footed, it was the mortgage hikes of 2022.
As an adviser I’m always thinking when events unfold. Should I have seen this coming? Was there a way to have planned for this better?
I thought rates would rise going into 2022, but not the absolute flood of hikes we’ve seen. Or the turmoil of the mini-budget which created the carnage in the bond markets. This flew in the face of all previous Central Bank rhetoric or expectations. 👇
I’m reminded that we cannot predict the future. The key thing this has reinforced is - even the best laid plans have to sometimes adapt and change.
That is why the value is in the planning, not the static plan.
If anything that lockdowns or 2022 has taught us is that we should expect change, it may be faster than we anticipated and we can’t be afraid of that.
We too have the power to change.
3 Things I’m hopeful about
1) We are far more resilient than we realise
As we embark into 2023 we find ourselves again in challenging times.
Inflation, supply chain issues, political divides and a continuing war in Europe.
If I had written on the eve of the New Year in 2019 that there would be the worst pandemic in a century.
That almost all the following year the global economy would be taken off the tracks. What catastrophe would I imagine?
If we can take any positives, we must take some solace in the fact that we are far more resilient than we often give ourselves credit for.
You do not want to waste what could be the most meaningful or happiest of your life focusing on negative events that you cannot control.
That is not to be unmoved or unsympathetic to the challenges of many, of course, at a time like this it is important to help where you can and make a difference.
But there is a line, and that line is often to be drawn on what we can control.
2) We live in an era of opportunity
Some of the big news stories that came out this year were the huge development in genome technology and the implications for cancer treatment. As always, the rules of the game with medical advances are not to get too excited too early. But CRISPR technology has the potential change a lot of lives for the better.
AI became mainstream and Chat GPT was frankly, remarkable. The first time that AI has been put into the mainstream. Capable of answering questions to a high degree and not just the simple nonsense most online chatbots come out with.
“The times they are a changing.. “
And I say this, will the greatest and utmost respect to both you and I dear reader…
“THIS IS THE VERSION THEY LET THE PLEBS SEE!??”
I wonder what the capabilities that are being developed by the tech giants, military and what is the impact on our future? Who knows! It’s a future we all share and a reason why it’s exciting to be alive at this point in history.
😐 Condolences for Mark Zuckerberg and the Metaverse. $36 billion spent. Currently looking like graphics barely better than the 2nd version of ’Sims’ which was released in 2004.
Actual Metaverse graphics
The SIMS - Circa 2004
It would be foolish to write-off the Metaverse.
All I can say is we’re a long way from where it needs to be to change the world. Watch this for more detail on this: 👇
📺 I played the Metaverse so you don’t have to.
3) After a reset, we’ll be in a better position
We are likely headed for more tough times economically. I can imagine for at least the next 12 months or so. (Remember the stock market and the economy are different things.)
Since the Great Financial Crisis we have had ultra-low interest rates and the spending encouraged by quantitive easing.
The unintended consequence of all this loose monetary policy was that it transferred into asset prices and investor behaviour.
Crypto became huge, despite having no provable utility.
Tech companies making no profit had multi-billion pound valuations.
Private equity investment flooded many markets.
Risk assets becoming more correlated.
TikTok day traders mistook genius for leverage.
House prices going from overpriced to obscene.
This was not sustainable.
While it’s painful to go through, at some point in time a reset to more normal economic conditions is short-term painful but long-term necessary.
Many had been calling from this since 2014. A great lesson in not trying to outguess or time the market.
Like how the seasons eventually turn. It’s never nice to feel the cold of winter when you remember that hazy summer day.
But we can’t mistake this for being unexpected. This is the cycle at work.
Your behaviour through these times is what will define you as financially successful or a failed investor.
3 Things I was wrong about
1) Crypto….. might not be a scam?
Entering the hall of mirrors with this one.
See my very hesitant, heavily caveated version of this on my 2021 blog where I say there might be something I was missing in the crypto puzzle.
I remained skeptical and I’ve always been a ‘no-coiner’ (someone who has no cryptocurrency.)
So it turns out in 2022, it seems my initial instincts were right.
It was pure Ponzi.
Forget structural thinking.
As I’ve said, the technology could be the solution to something…. Right now we just haven’t quite worked out the problem.
2) Rates will climb slowly
I think I’d share the surprise here with the rest of the world.
2022 we saw some pretty extreme hikes in monetary policy.
It’s foolish to make predictions but in 2023, with rates rising, similar to the LDI issue of this year, this is typically when the odd thing might come out the woodwork.
“It’s only when the tide goes out that you see whose been swimming naked.” - Warren Buffet
3) You can get married without breaking the bank! 🙃
Turns out the most expensive phrase in the world isn’t:
“This time it’s different.”
It’s actually:
“Could you quote for a wedding please?” 😂
I joke, it was a great day and I wouldn’t change a thing.
Credit to my wife who did a brilliant job with all the planning.
3 Favourite Videos of 2022
So as a content creator, these are in my humble but hugely biased opinion, are the best bits of the channel’s content in 2022.
1) The 3 BIG RETIREMENT MISTAKES
2) The HOLE in your financial plan
3) How to survive the Tech Bubble + Great Depression COMBINED
3 Favourite Blog Posts
(Click the title for a link 👇)
1) Why you need an investment criteria
A stark reminder of the importance of investing in the right things. This has never been more evident than in 2022.
2) 2 Financial Questions everyone needs answering
First blog of 2022 and evergreen on the nature of real financial planning.
3) Predictions are hard, especially about the future
Why we don’t need to know the future to plan well for it.
I’m reminded of the enormously privileged position I have to be part of my client’s lives. Helping shape their future and guiding them through these times.
Of course, like the rest of us. I’d love it if things would start becoming a bit more ‘precedented’ for a while.
The thought I will sign off on for 2022 is that, there is never a perfect time to face the future. Whether that is doing the right thing for your future self, living the life you want or making the most of each day:
“We cannot put off living until we are ready. The most salient characteristic of life is its coerciveness: it is always urgent, ‘here and now,’ without any postponement.
Life is fired at us point-blank.” Jose Ortegay Y. Gasset
But most of all I want to thank each and every one of you who follows me.
It really means the world and I’m incredibly grateful for you taking the time to be part of this journey.
Here’s to 2023 and fighting the misconceptions about personal finance and life! 👇👇
