3 things that mattered - 2021
3 Things I've learnt
1. It's ok to not meet some goals
I launched this project in mid-January 2021 I had this note on my phone:
So anyone who has followed closely might be able to infer from my release schedule. I failed 2 of those goals around May or June time. From March to August I spent a lot of time commuting between Manchester and London. This meant in reality every other weekend I'd spend my weekends commuting or mainly, away from a computer I could edit on which made this impossible. Add to that a busy working schedule it felt (and was) completely impossible while retaining any level of sanity. The moving around is also why there's been a few 'changes of scene' from the backgrounds in my video while I've been getting settled in London.
The truth is, to be able to write, record and edit a video and a blog piece each week along with my work schedule was with the best will in the world, complete madness. I think even a part of me knew it would extremely difficult to stick to and it's no coincidence that this appeared much more feasible in a pandemic environment when we were completely locked down.
All that said, despite my failure to meet my own personal goal I'm glad that I made the goal. It gave me something to aim for so when I missed the target. Like many endeavours, it's taken a lot of deeply unappealing work but I can honestly say it’s been worth it and continues to be. Going through the process and setting these goals early allowed me to focus on what is important - focus on the process, not the end result & stick with it.
2. Iterating is everything
In each version of the Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, Graham was reported to discard the formulas he presented in the previous edition and replaced them with new ones, declaring, in effect, that 'those don't work anymore.' I look back on my first video and cringe a bit.
If I think back to all the things that this project has brought. I've been contacted by so many people, helped mentor some new advisers, been put in touch with people in the profession I deeply respect. None of that would have happened if I’d be happy to just get on with things are they are. Probably the most difficult thing about creating (anything) is that you have to get used to people not liking, being completely indifferent or not understanding what or why you are doing it. But you’ll never know unless you start.
Brené Brown: Why Your Critics Aren't The Ones Who Count
I think it took until about October for me to 'start' to understand Youtube. I still don't think i'm there fully but I feel a million miles closer than I was this time last year and I have no idea how I would have learnt these things without ‘doing’ the work. Sometimes with ideas and projects, it feels like I’m going backwards, sometimes like I’m going nowhere and sometimes like things are progressing incredibly quickly. Only one consistency is when looking back you end up miles from where you started!
Credit - Jack Butcher
3. Goals change, values rarely do
I've been looking into values-based planning and I think there is something in this. Goals themselves can be fleeting. There are bodies of research out that show that we as humans aren't particularly good at predicting what we actually want. Although it's quite rare for people to change their values. Your goal may be to lose weight but your values are that you want to live a healthy lifestyle. Your goal may be to reduce your hours, but your values are you want your family to be the centre of your life. Interesting to think about when setting objectives!
3 Things I'm hopeful about
1. You cannot bet against human progress
The forward march of human progress - perhaps a bit grandiose but it's true. I remain incredibly optimistic about the future despite how difficult the past few years have been. It only seems apparent when looking back but since 2010 we’ve seen:
Introduction of voice activation (Siri, Alexa)
Streaming services (Netflix, Disney)
Smartphones became ubiquitous (and essentially now another part of the body for most which is a bit of a concern)
Ride-hailing apps (Uber etc)
Data became the new currency
Collectively these have completely changed the way our world works and how we interact with it and they have only really taken off in the last 10 years. I remain the rational optimist!
2. If there was any time, it would be now!
The last 2 years have been immensely tough for many of us. Though it is worth remembering that if you were given the option or perhaps granted a wish where you could live at any time in history. Any rational person would say, now. To steal from Morgan Housel's recent blog piece about how we are humans adapt. Warren Buffett once told a group of college students that they all lived better than John D. Rockefeller:
'I mean you’re warm in winter and cool in summer and can watch the World Series on TV. You can do anything in the world. You literally live better than Rockefeller. His unparalleled fortune couldn’t buy what we now take for granted, whether the field is—to name just a few—transportation, entertainment, communication or medical services. Rockefeller certainly had power and fame; he could not, however, live as well as my neighbours now do.'
3. This too will pass
Perhaps a controversially optimistic point for someone whose Christmas plans have completely changed due to this... but it’s important not to listen purely to the media’s constant doomsday views. IF we can get past Omicron and it doesn’t lead to high hospitalisations then it could see the end of the Pandemic as it’s been in the past 2 years. (I know big call!) Though it’ll be a while before we know if it ends up being manageable we can remain hopeful combined with the booster program, changes to the vaccine take account of new variants, the pills they are bringing out. We may be able to move to the next stage of 'living with it as the economic turmoil can't continue forever. I'm no epidemiologist so my guess is as good as anyone else, but almost 2 years since the first lockdown, I think we're all desperate to get to that point!
Siri - show me confirmation bias 😉
3 Things I've been wrong about
1. Crypto is mainly a scam
I'm still on the fence about this but in my video on 'making better decisions' I talk about putting in a process of structural thinking to avoid your own biases and if there has ever been a year for crypto to go mainstream - it was 2021. I was always convinced that the technology was game-changing but not convinced its current utility is there yet. However, demand globally continues to skyrocket with no sign of slowing down. So, what might I be missing?:
Well, more than a third of the world’s population, or 2.6 billion people, live in nations and territories gripped by repression, corruption and human rights abuses (Source - Reuters). So when I sit with all the biases of our imperfect, but relatively well-developed capital markets and governments. Perhaps I'm underestimating how much demand there is for a decentralised store of value away from government control. Secondly, there is always an appetite for asymmetric bets (lottery-like returns). I'm still not convinced it has the ability to be as 'universal' as some claim. If you want a far more intelligent view than I will give you, read this:
DeFi risks and the decentralisation illusion
Here's the TLDR version:
Blockchain brings incredible options (especially in De-Fi to decentralise transactions).
Most transactions of note require a level of governance to have trust beyond cryptographic security. Let's say I transfer (insert applications talked about - property rights/goods/securities) via using a DeFi avenue. How do we reverse the transaction if there has been fraud/misrepresentation or a breach of trust? Effectively, how do we avoid needing governance for anything beyond a binary transaction and how does a decentralised system truly deal with this in a way that can accurately verify a transaction where trust is beyond yes/no which accounts for the majority of transactions? How does crypto deal with the same level of protection of the Sale of Good Act and thousands of other transactions of these types?
Perhaps it’s something I’m missing, perhaps it’s a blind spot. The amazing thing with technological advancement is that it slowly turns what was once thought impossible into mainstream acceptance. I for one sincerely hope that my ‘what I was wrong about 2022’ involves this paragraph again. One of the many advantages of writing these things down is it’s a ledger (admittedly not immutable 🙂) of what I’m saying when. There are lots more things worse than being wrong!
2. You create your own environment
Actually, no. If you're not careful, your environment can create you. Daniel Priestley writes in his book '24 Assets' about his time with various Entrepreneurs and how he noticed the impact of group expectation. "Your income is typically the average of your five closest friends."
While no one is saying you have to start hanging out with millionaires, I think there is some truth in that you do have to make sure you are in a place that aligns with your values, who you want to be and what is important to you. It was a lesson of this year was to make sure you're fighting the right battles.
3. You can make the time
Everyone has the same 24 hours in a day, that is correct. But everyone has a finite amount of energy, focus and resources. If there was one thing I look back on with 2021 it was probably one where sometimes in an attempt to do various things where less can be more. Professionally, my focus will always be my client work first and foremost. That is what gets me out of bed in the morning but for the other tasks, 2 hours of focused work is better than 4 hours ‘being busy.’ In 2022 I’m trying to work on getting better at dedicating more focused time instead of 'busy time.'
See here for more details on this:
Warren Buffett's "2 List" Strategy: How to Maximize Your Focus and Master Your Priorities
3 Favourite Videos of 2021
Getting Wealthy vs Staying Wealthy
It’s a short video but I like the construction of it all as far as the stories across it. About finance but more interesting than just the technical.
2. The Science behind Investing
Somehow tried to get a background of academic finance in less than 13 minutes!
3. Avoid the Noise
Completely random and concept-driven. Still, every so often I like to do a video like this (see 'The Money Game.' Couldn't be less useful for the Youtube algorithm but that's not the point of it all at the end of the day!
3 Favourite Blog Post of 2021
Number 1 purely because of the thumbnail for the article!
Seeing the Woodford from the Trees -
Seeing the Woodford from the Trees - Principles Personal Finance
Number 1 purely because of the thumbnail for the article!
When Breath Becomes Air - A Review
When Breath Becomes Air - A Review - Principles Personal Finance
Still my favourite book of this year.
Are you thinking like an iPhone or a Blackberry?
Are you thinking like an iPhone or a Blackberry? - Principles Personal Finance
Lots of plans for 2022 but mainly, to keep going. So my question for you, dear reader is what 3 things have you learned in 2021? Here’s a short video that you can put a text reply to anonymously. Let me know in the below and I’ll do a blog piece on the collection of answers:
So once again, thank you all for coming with me on this journey. I sincerely hope you all have a very Merry Christmas. Take some much deserved time off! There's always a reason to be grateful. Just ask the T-Rexes below......
